‘A trend that can’t be ignored’: Dems have made up ground in nearly every election since Trump took office

Democrats have consistently overperformed in elections since President Donald Trump took office last year, signaling a potential shift in the political environment. A POLITICO analysis of 229 state and federal elections found Democratic candidates outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 193 of them, averaging a 5-point overperformance. This trend has been particularly strong in special elections, with Democrats shifting races left in close to 85 percent of them this cycle. While Republicans argue these are low-turnout events, Democrats see it as proof that voters are souring on Republican promises and are raising expectations for a significant wave of victories in the upcoming November midterms. This consistent progress has occurred across diverse districts, including those where Trump beat Harris, and is credited to Democrats focusing on "kitchen-table issues."