Average 2026 tax refunds up, but well below Trump’s expectations
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The Bottom Line
Average 2026 tax refunds are up 11% to $3,462 but are below President Trump's expectations.
How This Affects You
Your 2026 tax refund may be higher than last year but could be less than what the administration projected from new tax breaks.
AI Summary
Average 2026 tax refunds are up 11 percent to $3,462, but these figures are well below President Trump’s expectations for his "One Big Beautiful Bill." The legislation, signed into law last year, was intended to ensure new tax breaks for Americans. While the average check is higher than 2025's $3,116, the current administration had anticipated a more substantial increase. This indicates that the impact of the new tax breaks on refunds is not meeting the White House's projected outcomes.
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