6 governor races shift to Democrats: Election handicapper

The Hill
by Julia Mueller
March 19, 2026
2 min read

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Election forecaster shifted six gubernatorial races toward Democrats, including Georgia toss-up and Arizona.

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Sabato's Crystal Ball, a prominent election forecasting model, shifted six gubernatorial races toward Democrats on Thursday, including moving Georgia's open governor's seat from "leans Republican" to a toss-up and Arizona in the same direction. The moves suggest Democratic gains in what could be a competitive 2026 midterm environment, though Republicans maintain an overall structural advantage in governorships nationwide. Georgia's shift is particularly significant given the state's status as a perennial battleground and its importance to both parties' electoral math. The changes reflect evolving political conditions and candidate recruitment dynamics heading into the fall campaign season.

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