A Long Gulf War Can Starve the World. A Hormuz Transit Deal Could Save Millions.

The ongoing Gulf war has de facto closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting one-third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade and driving oil prices to $119 a barrel, with U.S. gas averaging over $4 per gallon. The World Food Program estimates that 45 million people could fall into life-threatening food insecurity if the conflict persists through summer with oil above $100 a barrel, hitting import-dependent countries like Egypt and Sudan hardest. The article proposes a "Hormuz Transit Initiative" modeled on the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative—a narrow political commitment to protect food and fertilizer shipments through the strait without resolving the underlying war. Such a deal would require UN backing and a specialized team to monitor vessel movements and provide shipping companies the reassurance needed to resume transit. The author argues this focused approach is more achievable than a comprehensive peace settlement and critical to preventing cascading food crises across Africa, Asia, and beyond.