Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

Eight newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed roughly $70,000 in bets on a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend, potentially netting nearly $820,000 if a deal is reached by March 31. Experts analyzing the betting pattern say the timing and structure of the wagers suggest the account holders may have possessed insider knowledge of negotiations. Prediction markets have long been scrutinized for potential market manipulation and information leakage, particularly when large sums concentrate around specific geopolitical outcomes on compressed timelines. The bets highlight ongoing concerns about information asymmetries in online gambling platforms and whether advance knowledge of sensitive diplomatic developments is leaking into financial markets.