Fuel prices are soaring. Plastic could be next.

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid conflict in Iran has driven crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, triggering a cascade of price increases in petrochemical-derived plastics that threatens to ripple through global supply chains. Naphtha prices in Asia have spiked 50% in the past month, pushing polypropylene—used in food containers and automotive parts—significantly higher, with India's largest water bottle supplier already announcing an 11% price increase after packaging costs jumped over 70%. Manufacturers typically maintain limited inventory buffers that are expected to deplete within weeks, potentially making toys more expensive this holiday season and pushing broader consumer goods costs upward. The U.S. is especially vulnerable: the average American consumed over 250 kilograms of new plastic in 2019—more than four times the global average of 60 kilograms—and viable alternatives remain negligible, with bio-based plastics comprising just 0.5% of global production as of 2025. Unlike the energy sector, which can pivot toward renewables, the plastics industry has no readily available substitutes for fossil-derived materials, leaving economies dependent on a supply chain now under severe strain.