How High Could Gas Prices Go? What to Know About the Iran War’s Ongoing Impact

The national average gasoline price crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022 following Trump's war with Iran, which began February 28 and has disrupted global oil supplies. The price surge represents a $1.04 increase from the previous month's $2.97 average, driven by rising crude oil costs and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil travels. Diesel prices have climbed 45% since the war began and hit $5.45 per gallon on Tuesday, creating a trickle-down effect on supply chains—a 10% diesel rise could push the consumer price index up 0.1%. The Trump administration has released 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and waived the Jones Act to mitigate costs, but analysts forecast further increases, with some warning gas could reach $7 per gallon if the conflict extends into summer. The Energy Information Administration projects retail gas prices will average $3.34 for 2026 but remain vulnerable to any deterioration in the Strait of Hormuz transit.