Iran war's economic shocks could reverberate for a while

Iran's attacks on energy infrastructure, including damage that wiped out 17% of the nation's natural gas export capacity, risk creating economic shocks that will outlast any ceasefire, according to market analysts and U.S. officials. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz combined with direct hits on production facilities could sideline nearly 13 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually for up to five years, Qatar's energy minister said, disrupting global supplies of fertilizer, helium for semiconductors, and oil. U.S. farmers who didn't pre-order fertilizer face potential shortages before spring planting, which could lower crop yields and push grocery prices higher throughout 2026 and beyond. Wall Street economists and the Federal Reserve are raising inflation forecasts and cutting GDP growth projections for the second half of the year, with Oxford Economics now expecting American consumer spending growth of just 1.9% annually—the slowest pace in 13 years outside the pandemic.