Trump risks falling in to the ‘asymmetric resolve’ trap in Iran − just as presidents before him did elsewhere

Trump is caught in the "asymmetric resolve" trap with Iran—a dynamic where the weaker side has more existential stakes and thus greater determination to fight than the stronger power, making victory difficult despite superior firepower. While Iran has suffered roughly 6,500 military and civilian casualties compared to 13 U.S. service members as of mid-March, Tehran continues to reject a 15-point U.S. ceasefire plan, close the Strait of Hormuz, and strike regional targets, showing no signs of capitulation. The Trump administration is attempting to limit the war's scope and promising negotiations, but history shows larger powers in such conflicts either escalate into quagmires (as in Vietnam and Afghanistan) or wind down and accept face-saving exits. American public opposition to the Iran war stands at roughly 60%, a major vulnerability in democratic warmaking that Iran, as an authoritarian state, does not face domestically.