Wednesday briefing: ​How did Russia become the unexpected beneficiary of the Iran war?

Russia has emerged as the primary beneficiary of the war in Iran, which began with US and Israeli attacks on Tehran in late February. Rising oil prices—driven by conflict-related supply concerns—have surged from a pre-war average of $72 to over $100 per barrel, delivering billions in unexpected revenue to Moscow as it continues funding its invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year. The financial windfall has reversed what appeared to be an imminent budget crisis for Vladimir Putin's government, which had been preparing deep cuts to education and healthcare to sustain military operations. The price spike reflects how Middle East instability is reshaping global energy markets and creating geopolitical winners and losers independent of direct combat involvement. This dynamic underscores how regional conflicts increasingly ripple through international energy and security structures, with consequences that extend far beyond the immediate conflict zone.