AIPAC faces its biggest test this year in Illinois

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is spending nearly $22 million in Illinois House races ahead of Tuesday's primary, largely funneling money through shell PACs to obscure its funding sources rather than using its main super PAC vehicle. In the race to replace retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky, AIPAC's strategy appears to have backfired: its attacks on Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, a Jewish candidate critical of Israel, reportedly opened the door for Palestinian-American progressive Kat Abughazaleh, who is hostile to AIPAC's agenda, while the group's preferred moderate candidate, state Sen. Laura Fine, has lost momentum. The miscalculation echoes AIPAC's costly intervention in a New Jersey special election last month, where its $2 million campaign against pro-Israel moderate Tom Malinowski helped elect a progressive who called Israel's Gaza actions genocide. AIPAC recently pivoted tactics, pulling down anti-Biss ads and instead attacking Abughazaleh, but Democratic strategists warn the shift may have come too late. The primary results Tuesday will be AIPAC's first major test of its expanded $100 million war chest in the 2026 cycle, as internal Democratic concerns grow about the group's influence, particularly as 62 percent of Democrats say the U.S. is too supportive of Israel.