As US pursues 'maximalist demands', Iran relies on four decades of asymmetric warfare

Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, argues that escalating US demands are pushing Iran to rely on asymmetric warfare tactics refined over four decades rather than toward diplomatic resolution. The confrontation between the US, Israel, and Iran carries significant risk of military escalation that could destabilize the broader Middle East and beyond. Vaez identifies deep mistrust, misaligned expectations, and lack of credible security guarantees as the primary obstacles preventing meaningful negotiation. Despite internal and external pressures, Iran maintains operational capacity and continues developing unconventional military capabilities—a posture that suggests the standoff could intensify rather than resolve through traditional diplomacy. The analysis underscores that the current trajectory favors military rather than political solutions unless the fundamental conditions for dialogue shift.