Will Trump bring peace, or more bombs? Shady speculators seem to bet right every time | Nesrine Malik

# Summary In an opinion piece, Nesrine Malik examines suspicious trading patterns surrounding political announcements during Donald Trump's presidency. She cites an instance where oil traders placed approximately $500 million in bets roughly 15 minutes before Trump announced "productive talks" with Iran, triggering a crude oil price drop, as well as suspicious activity on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, where new accounts predicted U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran 24 hours prior and profited from a Venezuela coup prediction. Malik notes that while the White House denies the Trump family engaged in conflicts of interest, these betting markets are difficult to regulate due to their use of cryptocurrency, decentralized structure, and global accessibility. She argues that such markets reduce political outcomes to profit-making opportunities, though investigators cannot definitively prove whether insider knowledge drove the trades.