You Can’t Judge the Iran War by Its Stats

New York Times columnist Bret Stephens argued last week that the Iran war is proceeding well compared to past conflicts, citing metrics like zero piloted U.S. aircraft shot down and the killing of Iran's supreme leader in initial strikes. The Trump administration has acknowledged "failures in planning" and an unwillingness to build allied support before the campaign began, according to Stephens's own account. However, critics argue early tactical success obscures long-term consequences: a U.S. missile strike killed approximately 175 Iranian civilians at a girls' school, Israeli attacks on Lebanon have followed, and counterterrorism experts fear rising anti-American terrorism. Historical precedent—from the 1991 Gulf War's role in radicalizing Osama bin Laden to the 20-year Afghanistan conflict costing $2 trillion—demonstrates that wars judged as successful early often produce destabilizing regional consequences for decades. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-third of the world's helium critical for semiconductors and medical imaging, exemplifies unplanned disruptions now affecting global supply chains.